Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UL -110 WRST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +6 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | UL -6.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -6.4 (-12.4) | 151.9 (+24.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -5.2 (-11.2) | 155.7 (+20.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UL -5.7 (-11.7) | 153.8 (+22.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -5.8 (-11.8) | 153.4 (+22.6) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 86.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -5.1 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#132) | -1.69 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#138) | -1.84 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#74) | 0.514 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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