Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +130 TAR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +7 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | TAR -4.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -4.8 (-2.2) | 129.1 (-4.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -2.9 (-4.1) | 131.6 (-6.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -3.8 (-3.2) | 133.2 (-8.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -3.4 (-3.6) | 129.6 (-4.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#248) | 0.5 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#238) | 1.64 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#226) | 2.44 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#199) | 0.646 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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