Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 8.4 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -2.5 141.2 39% 74–78 ✗
SMU @ South Florida +4.0 153.4 72% 67–71 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State -0.3 137.9 48% 55–50 ✓
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +10.5 152.5 81% 58–66 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +0.3 146.0 50% 68–82 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +9.7 155.0 83% 58–76 ✓
UTSA @ Florida International +7.0 149.5 80% 95–91 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Lamar +0.4 148.0 51% 84–79 ✗
Boise State @ San José State -2.8 135.4 42% 68–74 ✗
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -3.9 150.7 36% 66–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +0.1 154.6 58% 74–86 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +13.2 143.9 88% 64–81 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +1.2 163.1 64% 77–81 ✓
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -14.2 157.4 12% 93–79 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +1.4 142.0 58% 57–53 ✗
Delaware @ Elon -3.1 139.1 39% 70–54 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State +10.6 149.0 85% 64–71 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +6.4 137.7 77% 79–71 ✗
DePaul @ Marquette +15.4 153.8 89% 84–90 ✓
Houston @ East Carolina -17.7 135.0 12% 76–57 ✓
USC @ Utah +1.5 141.2 58% 62–49 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +6.5 143.3 77% 65–81 ✓
UAB @ Western Kentucky -3.9 155.7 33% 72–60 ✓
Tarleton State @ UT Rio Grande Valley -2.3 145.3 42% 95–99 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota +1.0 137.8 58% 48–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee -0.0 148.4 49% 72–81 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State -4.4 146.1 43% 63–71 ✗
LSU @ Ole Miss +4.5 136.8 69% 69–82 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +5.5 131.8 76% 72–74 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +6.3 137.2 78% 53–67 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +3.8 146.0 68% 68–77 ✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico +1.0 148.6 50% 73–71 ✗
Oregon @ Oregon State -8.3 131.6 20% 69–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Diego -4.9 161.1 28% 81–63 ✓
San Francisco @ BYU +5.5 151.8 73% 61–87 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego -4.1 142.8 33% 87–71 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i +1.1 135.8 51% 67–72 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -0.2 159.2 47% 75–67 ✓
Northwestern @ Maryland +5.2 132.5 73% 59–75 ✓
Illinois @ Ohio State +0.2 145.1 48% 60–72 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ St. Bonaventure +2.9 141.8 68% 76–89 ✓
Providence @ Georgetown -8.2 151.7 20% 88–68 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa -2.3 148.9 40% 83–75 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +5.1 125.5 63% 66–65 ✗
Siena @ Iona +11.1 137.8 87% 60–93 ✓
Fairfield @ Canisius +0.4 140.5 53% 51–64 ✓
Cincinnati @ Memphis +6.7 156.2 77% 73–76 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC -6.0 134.1 30% 68–65 ✓
Missouri State @ Indiana State +7.7 140.6 79% 66–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider +7.1 139.9 77% 63–58 ✗
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +10.3 146.7 85% 72–70 ✗
Wisconsin @ Michigan +5.9 132.0 73% 79–87 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne +6.4 146.4 78% 71–67 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulane +6.3 154.8 72% 83–76 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +8.5 141.2 80% 53–72 ✓
UCLA @ Colorado -5.0 135.7 29% 60–56 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +5.2 146.7 75% 76–77 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +3.8 136.5 61% 61–73 ✓
UCF @ Tulsa -13.0 142.5 13% 68–49 ✓
Washington @ Stanford +2.6 140.3 64% 69–81 ✓
Rutgers @ Penn State +2.2 133.7 57% 59–56 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.