We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–21 on winners spread MAE 9.3 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boston University @ Marist +3.3 129.8 55% 72–70 ✗
Marshall @ Robert Morris -5.6 140.0 33% 69–60 ✓
Wright State @ Western Kentucky +9.8 148.8 82% 60–64 ✓
Southern Utah @ Cal State Fullerton -1.5 146.8 47% 67–60 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Mount St. Mary's +9.6 136.0 81% 34–51 ✓
Nevada @ Oregon +2.7 138.9 65% 65–78 ✓
Mercer @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.7 140.9 84% 62–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Princeton +23.3 141.4 91% 54–91 ✓
Indiana @ Arizona -2.8 157.0 40% 75–89 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +2.1 129.1 58% 65–71 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Clemson +7.5 141.0 74% 76–58 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Missouri State +4.7 131.3 67% 65–61 ✗
Samford @ Louisiana +3.3 157.1 68% 58–75 ✓
Alcorn State @ Southern Illinois +11.8 133.0 86% 68–74 ✓
Kansas City @ Green Bay -4.9 129.7 28% 64–70 ✗
Montana @ North Dakota State -0.5 137.2 50% 82–75 ✓
St. Thomas @ Idaho State +1.4 143.4 57% 76–70 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Old Dominion +5.2 130.6 74% 43–44 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Houston Christian -3.7 160.4 38% 95–82 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Pepperdine +7.1 144.9 73% 67–64 ✗
Boise State @ Saint Louis +3.7 142.1 60% 57–52 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Oral Roberts +15.5 154.9 86% 78–111 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Portland +19.0 154.1 89% 61–100 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Wyoming -3.4 146.5 38% 65–92 ✗
Creighton @ BYU -9.7 145.8 22% 80–83 ✗
TCU @ SMU -8.5 135.0 21% 83–75 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Cal State Northridge +3.5 143.6 62% 70–63 ✗
Portland State @ Cal Poly +0.8 144.6 56% 49–72 ✓
California Baptist @ San Diego +1.9 143.0 55% 76–73 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Utah State +4.8 154.8 67% 67–79 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Iona +6.3 138.3 73% 57–72 ✓
Tarleton State @ UCF +8.7 133.6 76% 49–75 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Niagara +10.9 143.6 81% 60–67 ✓
Maine @ Merrimack -8.5 132.9 19% 50–47 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fordham +13.1 138.0 86% 77–90 ✓
Bryant @ Manhattan -4.2 150.0 28% 104–97 ✓
Jackson State @ Akron +11.6 140.0 85% 72–85 ✓
Ohio @ Youngstown State +11.9 151.1 81% 81–79 ✗
Siena @ Delaware +3.0 141.9 65% 64–75 ✓
Coppin State @ East Carolina +5.7 154.8 75% 75–84 ✓
NJIT @ Fairleigh Dickinson +6.1 144.6 69% 71–73 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Morehead State +2.5 134.3 53% 57–61 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northwestern +12.2 130.7 83% 51–61 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Virginia Tech -0.2 136.9 45% 65–70 ✗
Chicago State @ UT Martin +4.8 154.0 68% 74–75 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Kansas State +18.8 135.4 89% 50–98 ✓
Lipscomb @ Tennessee State +1.6 136.9 62% 85–90 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Indiana -0.7 152.7 48% 85–88 ✗
New Mexico State @ Duquesne +4.0 150.1 70% 73–60 ✗
Bowling Green @ Hampton +1.6 145.9 51% 86–72 ✗
Navy @ Towson +5.6 141.4 74% 71–69 ✗
Marquette @ Notre Dame -2.3 149.9 39% 79–64 ✓
Tennessee @ Maryland -4.3 132.2 34% 56–53 ✓
UC Riverside @ Idaho +2.6 141.1 59% 76–74 ✗
McNeese @ Iowa State +22.0 124.6 90% 40–77 ✓
Oregon State @ Texas A&M +9.5 141.1 80% 54–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina +4.9 131.1 63% 57–68 ✓
Wisconsin @ Iowa +6.0 140.0 67% 78–75 ✗
Seton Hall @ Rutgers +13.7 130.4 83% 45–43 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.