And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–28 on winners spread MAE 9.6 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UCF @ Houston +12.5 148.0 86% 55–79 ✓
Michigan State @ Minnesota -10.8 133.9 16% 73–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +16.4 152.6 88% 65–76 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +8.8 141.1 81% 60–59 ✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's -2.1 148.4 43% 73–76 ✗
Duquesne @ George Mason +7.4 147.5 81% 71–65 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +23.3 160.1 91% 88–109 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic -1.5 159.5 36% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +11.3 150.9 85% 55–69 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -4.6 159.7 29% 80–78 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb -11.0 142.3 16% 86–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +14.8 162.1 87% 55–80 ✓
Butler @ Providence +0.5 167.6 58% 87–97 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland -0.0 147.6 52% 84–89 ✗
Navy @ Lafayette -5.3 137.2 28% 65–50 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +1.5 150.4 49% 77–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.4 146.5 65% 90–61 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State -8.8 164.5 20% 78–91 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris -1.7 148.2 43% 66–72 ✗
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +5.3 147.1 75% 87–84 ✗
Furman @ East Tennessee State +6.4 143.4 78% 71–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +11.6 152.3 84% 85–79 ✗
Southern Miss @ Marshall +10.0 146.8 83% 77–81 ✓
Louisiana @ James Madison +8.7 133.7 77% 64–61 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -4.0 149.2 33% 74–63 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia Southern +2.9 147.7 60% 77–71 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +0.7 148.7 56% 70–66 ✗
Texas A&M @ Alabama +4.8 177.4 60% 97–100 ✓
Liberty @ Delaware -9.7 133.3 17% 75–69 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +3.7 139.6 65% 74–68 ✗
Charlotte @ Wichita State +8.6 145.2 79% 64–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +5.6 146.2 76% 67–64 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown +1.6 145.4 64% 68–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +12.4 146.3 87% 60–81 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +4.8 147.8 68% 88–84 ✗
UTEP @ Sam Houston +12.5 141.4 87% 66–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech -1.4 134.6 49% 72–63 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -1.9 134.7 36% 83–86 ✗
Colorado @ Baylor +4.8 158.0 69% 67–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -3.1 131.3 30% 54–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ California +12.0 145.3 86% 85–90 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -4.6 153.8 29% 82–75 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +3.6 152.8 70% 76–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +3.6 149.9 70% 76–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +15.7 147.2 87% 44–84 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -7.4 160.3 26% 92–99 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +0.5 158.6 58% 71–63 ✗
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +12.3 153.3 85% 78–94 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -17.8 147.2 12% 80–87 ✗
Clemson @ Stanford -2.4 137.1 40% 66–64 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -5.7 144.8 28% 71–56 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +18.0 144.6 90% 60–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Seattle U +11.2 135.8 85% 81–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +8.0 143.1 80% 84–75 ✗
Iowa @ Washington +0.4 136.7 46% 84–74 ✗
Utah State @ New Mexico +2.7 147.9 67% 86–66 ✗
Washington State @ Oregon State -1.9 145.4 45% 64–74 ✗
Vermont @ Maine -6.8 131.2 29% 70–76 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +12.9 135.9 88% 62–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant -0.5 132.2 39% 65–63 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan +25.9 157.0 91% 69–110 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.