Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alabama @ Tennessee +3.8 139.7 74% 59–68 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville -13.7 129.4 14% 61–58 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +5.8 155.7 76% 68–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ East Carolina -6.5 145.0 33% 71–75 ✗
Boston University @ Holy Cross -2.5 133.8 34% 69–71 ✗
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland -3.0 128.3 52% 70–73 ✗
Army @ Colgate +11.9 144.1 86% 86–93 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech -7.3 140.2 27% 70–77 ✗
Florida State @ Clemson +10.0 149.2 85% 54–94 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +4.1 137.0 70% 67–86 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +12.6 133.3 87% 51–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Bryant +0.5 150.2 53% 85–71 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany -6.4 141.5 30% 74–81 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -3.3 136.4 34% 75–64 ✓
VCU @ Rhode Island -5.2 132.8 26% 55–54 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham +4.9 134.9 70% 63–78 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +6.1 146.9 76% 62–76 ✓
Richmond @ La Salle -0.7 139.1 56% 62–68 ✗
George Mason @ George Washington -1.8 143.2 39% 66–53 ✓
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate -4.4 130.9 30% 67–72 ✗
High Point @ Presbyterian +0.4 139.5 44% 71–69 ✗
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb +5.8 136.1 74% 86–78 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +5.8 140.2 76% 51–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -8.7 144.5 23% 78–58 ✓
Furman @ The Citadel -13.3 148.7 14% 65–69 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina +2.1 140.7 65% 66–68 ✓
Mercer @ Wofford +2.9 139.6 63% 67–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +12.2 150.2 88% 81–85 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson +2.3 143.8 64% 72–75 ✓
Evansville @ Belmont +17.5 146.7 89% 63–95 ✓
Tarleton State @ Stephen F. Austin +6.8 138.9 75% 60–65 ✓
UT Arlington @ Sam Houston +13.4 126.0 85% 56–66 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +1.3 140.3 60% 71–83 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa -3.9 146.3 34% 96–69 ✓
Indiana State @ UIC -8.2 149.2 21% 79–60 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State -0.1 141.6 49% 76–75 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +8.6 127.1 80% 54–64 ✓
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +2.6 129.3 52% 71–68 ✗
Indiana @ Northwestern +1.4 132.9 57% 62–64 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +4.1 133.8 70% 59–70 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -4.5 144.7 30% 82–74 ✓
Arkansas @ Texas A&M +3.0 140.3 75% 56–62 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Louis +5.4 144.0 74% 65–78 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon +13.2 145.4 87% 77–76 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +11.0 137.6 87% 62–73 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State -3.0 136.8 31% 80–78 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist -0.1 135.4 45% 63–84 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside +0.0 150.1 58% 76–88 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly -0.0 121.6 38% 70–62 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego -5.0 132.4 27% 76–73 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara +1.7 137.1 55% 70–59 ✗
San Diego State @ Fresno State -7.1 129.6 21% 45–43 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -3.2 139.9 41% 71–72 ✗
Saint Francis @ St. Francis Brooklyn +0.3 136.6 40% 72–64 ✗
Purdue @ Maryland +0.4 130.9 55% 54–68 ✓
Texas State @ App State +3.0 128.3 61% 75–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.