He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–18 on winners spread MAE 8.3 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Florida @ Cincinnati +11.0 132.4 85% 56–54 ✗
Southern Miss @ Rice +11.9 147.5 87% 72–77 ✓
Florida International @ Old Dominion +7.5 132.2 77% 63–83 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +3.0 146.2 63% 52–69 ✓
Louisville @ Wake Forest +8.0 145.8 82% 77–99 ✓
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +4.9 136.8 72% 61–75 ✓
Robert Morris @ Wright State +13.5 147.5 86% 61–71 ✓
VMI @ Western Carolina -4.7 157.9 40% 73–82 ✗
Mercer @ Wofford +7.2 135.0 80% 67–74 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -9.2 137.8 17% 73–71 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +6.6 138.6 75% 77–90 ✓
Arizona @ Colorado -8.2 151.7 33% 63–79 ✗
Kansas @ Baylor +3.5 149.7 73% 70–80 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +1.3 130.9 55% 97–90 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +8.0 138.1 79% 49–68 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +10.3 158.5 87% 94–98 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston Christian -2.8 146.0 37% 75–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +7.0 130.2 73% 41–67 ✓
Lamar @ Tarleton State +11.5 128.2 86% 49–57 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +15.8 149.6 89% 59–75 ✓
Milwaukee @ UIC +4.3 142.7 71% 58–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +8.9 138.1 83% 55–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +6.1 157.3 69% 92–87 ✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City -5.0 152.3 30% 86–75 ✓
Omaha @ St. Thomas +8.4 154.5 79% 74–95 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming +8.1 143.4 82% 61–74 ✓
Creighton @ Providence +5.8 139.2 74% 51–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +7.4 128.1 76% 66–81 ✓
Stanford @ California -0.4 127.9 45% 39–53 ✗
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +4.5 145.1 73% 75–88 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +14.2 133.6 87% 55–75 ✓
UAB @ UTEP -6.0 141.4 31% 69–66 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -7.2 144.7 28% 73–65 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -4.9 140.0 37% 57–67 ✗
USC @ Oregon +1.9 141.5 53% 70–69 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +2.8 141.9 54% 63–61 ✗
Idaho State @ Portland State +6.2 137.1 75% 69–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State -5.3 141.3 29% 75–81 ✗
Boise State @ UNLV -1.3 130.6 46% 86–76 ✓
Colorado State @ Utah State +2.5 141.1 60% 66–55 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +7.0 136.1 69% 72–77 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +6.9 129.5 75% 50–62 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -10.7 147.4 16% 86–77 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard -1.8 142.3 37% 74–73 ✓
SMU @ Houston +13.2 140.4 87% 61–75 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +2.1 143.4 56% 72–67 ✗
Illinois @ Michigan +0.3 142.1 45% 93–85 ✗
Fairfield @ Manhattan -0.1 138.0 54% 66–62 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +4.6 126.5 70% 36–63 ✓
Monmouth @ Siena -1.9 136.5 39% 59–70 ✗
Iona @ Rider -7.7 141.0 24% 67–61 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +7.0 142.8 79% 57–81 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +10.7 142.5 84% 62–69 ✓
Tulane @ Temple +1.4 142.4 60% 70–75 ✓
Ohio State @ Maryland -2.4 141.5 41% 60–75 ✗
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro +3.5 133.6 71% 73–69 ✗
St. John's @ DePaul -0.2 156.3 52% 94–99 ✗
Montana State @ Montana -2.3 141.0 43% 74–80 ✗
Indiana @ Minnesota -1.1 134.6 39% 84–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.