← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

42–17 on winners spread MAE 9.5 96 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Arizona @ Duke	-0.0	151.9	50%	78–73	✓
Morehead State @ Purdue	+21.5	150.4	91%	57–87	✓
UCF @ Miami	+16.3	151.7	88%	72–88	✓
Texas A&M @ Ohio State	+4.1	142.6	59%	73–66	✗
East Texas A&M @ Kentucky	+20.8	135.1	90%	61–81	✓
Boston University @ Rutgers	+4.1	133.7	65%	45–69	✓
Chattanooga @ Louisville	—	—	—	81–71	—
South Carolina Upstate @ Vanderbilt	+4.3	137.0	65%	67–74	✓
Boston College @ The Citadel	+3.2	142.8	64%	75–71	✗
Troy @ Oregon State	—	—	—	80–81	—
Austin Peay @ George Mason	—	—	—	45–67	—
Princeton @ Hofstra	—	—	—	74–67	—
Maryland @ Davidson	—	—	—	61–64	—
Detroit Mercy @ Cincinnati	+13.0	139.4	84%	61–93	✓
Abilene Christian @ NC State	+6.7	136.4	61%	64–84	✓
Marshall @ Radford	-3.4	147.2	38%	62–66	✗
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Greensboro	—	—	—	78–94	—
Wake Forest @ Georgia	+1.6	151.3	55%	77–80	✓
Sacred Heart @ Iona	—	—	—	81–88	—
Samford @ VCU	+5.9	139.9	72%	65–75	✓
Belmont @ Furman	—	—	—	76–99	—
Monmouth @ West Virginia	+8.3	135.6	74%	73–65	✗
Virginia @ Florida	-4.2	143.0	30%	73–70	✓
Binghamton @ Pittsburgh	+18.2	144.8	89%	60–89	✓
Southern Miss @ Akron	—	—	—	54–72	—
Lehigh @ Penn State	+17.9	141.6	89%	65–74	✓
UTSA @ Minnesota	+13.7	146.1	85%	76–102	✓
Manhattan @ Kansas	+12.1	145.4	79%	61–99	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Arkansas	—	—	—	68–86	—
Indiana State @ Alabama	—	—	—	80–102	—
Oakland @ Illinois	+11.4	140.6	82%	53–64	✓
Alabama State @ Iowa	+16.7	149.6	87%	67–98	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ South Dakota	—	—	—	79–100	—
Bellarmine @ Kansas State	+6.6	144.9	75%	75–83	✓
Grambling @ Colorado	—	—	—	63–95	—
Tennessee Tech @ Murray State	—	—	—	72–78	—
Eastern Washington @ Ole Miss	+12.2	143.5	84%	64–75	✓
Nicholls @ LSU	+17.1	153.5	88%	68–66	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Oklahoma	+21.2	148.7	90%	43–82	✓
SE Louisiana @ Auburn	—	—	—	71–86	—
Queens University @ Southern Illinois	—	—	—	68–91	—
Harvard @ Rice	—	—	—	89–76	—
Rider @ Marquette	—	—	—	65–95	—
Idaho State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	—	—	—	53–54	—
Temple @ Navy	+4.2	135.1	64%	75–68	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Butler	+18.9	147.5	89%	56–91	✓
Little Rock @ UIC	+7.2	140.6	75%	71–86	✓
Dayton @ Northwestern	+7.0	135.6	72%	66–71	✓
Tennessee @ Wisconsin	+5.9	149.4	70%	80–70	✗
Yale @ Gonzaga	—	—	—	71–86	—
San Diego State @ BYU	+12.9	150.9	85%	65–74	✓
Delaware State @ Texas	+19.1	142.4	89%	59–86	✓
Montana @ Oregon	—	—	—	61–75	—
IU Indianapolis @ Valparaiso	—	—	—	66–56	—
Sacramento State @ Stanford	+9.0	146.0	79%	73–91	✓
Wright State @ Colorado State	—	—	—	77–105	—
Memphis @ Missouri	+9.0	155.8	79%	70–55	✗
Clemson @ UAB	-6.2	139.9	26%	77–76	✓
Virginia Tech @ South Carolina	-1.2	145.9	48%	77–79	✗
UC Riverside @ Utah	—	—	—	53–82	—
Jackson State @ California Baptist	—	—	—	66–80	—
Prairie View A&M @ Washington State	+11.8	141.8	82%	65–83	✓
Lafayette @ UCLA	+16.8	137.1	87%	50–68	✓
Pacific @ California	+11.9	135.3	82%	87–79	✗
Texas State @ Miami (OH)	+4.7	141.2	69%	75–65	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Brown	+9.3	146.9	80%	77–75	✗
Stonehill @ UConn	+23.0	141.2	91%	67–107	✓
High Point @ Wofford	—	—	—	98–99	—
UL Monroe @ Central Michigan	+7.5	137.5	80%	74–64	✗
Georgia Southern @ Eastern Michigan	+2.0	143.4	63%	60–70	✓
Arkansas State @ Bowling Green	+16.6	142.3	87%	75–81	✓
Cornell @ Fordham	+2.6	145.6	50%	78–73	✗
William & Mary @ George Washington	+14.8	145.4	87%	89–95	✓
Georgia State @ Western Michigan	-1.5	150.3	46%	77–70	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Houston	—	—	—	50–82	—
North Dakota State @ Creighton	+14.3	151.2	82%	60–89	✓
UNC Wilmington @ UNC Asheville	—	—	—	83–66	—
Campbell @ East Carolina	—	—	—	63–77	—
Western Carolina @ Notre Dame	—	—	—	71–61	—
South Alabama @ Buffalo	—	—	—	70–56	—
Old Dominion @ Ball State	—	—	—	68–73	—
Incarnate Word @ Tulsa	+15.3	138.2	86%	71–85	✓
Utah Tech @ Jacksonville State	—	—	—	81–79	—
Northeastern @ La Salle	+7.2	137.3	73%	74–79	✓
Marist @ UMBC	+1.4	149.1	48%	65–59	✗
Texas Southern @ Arizona State	+6.0	137.9	72%	52–63	✓
Saint Peter's @ NJIT	-2.5	143.3	45%	75–48	✓
Coppin State @ Mount St. Mary's	+14.7	132.0	89%	60–74	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Seton Hall	+5.8	146.7	57%	55–85	✓
Canisius @ St. Bonaventure	+6.9	146.3	72%	70–67	✗
App State @ Northern Illinois	—	—	—	78–91	—
UT Martin @ Mississippi State	—	—	—	63–87	—
Montana State @ Seattle U	—	—	—	68–71	—
Drexel @ Winthrop	+0.2	139.2	54%	74–72	✗
Ohio @ Cleveland State	+9.7	148.6	80%	78–82	✓
Milwaukee @ Providence	—	—	—	69–79	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.