Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -1600 SAC +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -14.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -9.0 (+9.0) | 146.0 (+18.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -12.0 (+6.0) | 145.8 (+18.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-24 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#155) | 0.4 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#32) | -0.38 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#32) | -0.55 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#9) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 9.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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