Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | FLA -110 UVA -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -8.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.7 (-1.3) | 140.8 (+2.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.7 (-1.3) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | FLA 87 – 69 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 59.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#123) | 9.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#67) | 1.01 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#84) | 1.81 (#22) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.1% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.9% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 51.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 36.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 81.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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