Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -3000 UVA +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -21.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -19.2 (-1.2) | 134.1 (+21.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -18.0 (+0.0) | 134.0 (+22.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -17.9 (+0.1) | 135.4 (+20.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -14.9 (+3.1) | 135.0 (+21.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | UVA 73 – 70 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-4 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 14-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.8 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#13) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#4) | 1.14 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.58 (#4) | 1.82 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.664 (#19) | 0.552 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 44.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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