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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–2 on winners spread MAE 12.7 38 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Southern Indiana @ Michigan State	+1.7	141.8	51%	51–74	✓
Tarleton State @ Florida International	+4.7	141.7	72%	82–65	✗
Northwestern State @ Tulane	—	—	—	71–88	—
American University @ William & Mary	—	—	—	56–75	—
East Tennessee State @ Elon	—	—	—	76–79	—
Army @ Stonehill	+5.3	134.8	69%	44–57	✓
North Florida @ Charleston Southern	—	—	—	81–70	—
South Carolina State @ South Florida	—	—	—	52–96	—
Fairfield @ Rhode Island	+9.8	147.6	80%	80–93	✓
James Madison @ Kent State	—	—	—	113–108	—
Howard @ Georgia Tech	+11.2	150.5	82%	85–88	✓
Utah Valley @ Sam Houston	—	—	—	79–73	—
Western Kentucky @ Wichita State	—	—	—	61–71	—
Mercer @ Chicago State	—	—	—	66–61	—
Stephen F. Austin @ Middle Tennessee	—	—	—	62–67	—
Towson @ Coppin State	-1.3	142.2	48%	70–49	✓
Alabama A&M @ North Alabama	—	—	—	67–83	—
Lamar @ SMU	—	—	—	67–78	—
Omaha @ TCU	—	—	—	60–82	—
Lindenwood @ Iowa State	+19.7	141.4	89%	47–102	✓
Florida A&M @ Nebraska	+21.1	144.5	90%	54–81	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ USC	+16.9	147.4	88%	59–85	✓
Cal Poly @ Denver	—	—	—	76–97	—
Cal State Northridge @ Idaho	+0.5	147.7	56%	76–73	✗
New Mexico @ Saint Mary's	—	—	—	58–72	—
Portland State @ UC Santa Barbara	—	—	—	82–76	—
Saint Francis @ San Francisco	—	—	—	52–84	—
Northern Kentucky @ Washington	+16.1	145.3	87%	67–75	✓
Air Force @ Long Island University	—	—	—	82–67	—
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac	—	—	—	70–74	—
Liberty @ Charlotte	—	—	—	71–59	—
Kennesaw State @ Florida State	—	—	—	67–94	—
UMass Lowell @ Dartmouth	—	—	—	81–48	—
Charleston @ Duquesne	+0.1	143.1	50%	72–90	✓
Le Moyne @ Villanova	+19.8	147.7	89%	57–83	✓
Youngstown State @ Michigan	+12.4	146.2	82%	62–92	✓
Jacksonville @ Xavier	—	—	—	56–79	—
Pennsylvania @ Saint Joseph's	+12.8	144.7	83%	61–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.