Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | USC -7000 CSUB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +26 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USC -27.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -16.9 (+9.1) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -20.0 (+6.0) | 146.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#59) | -5.5 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#20) | 0.29 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#19) | 0.17 (#138) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 48.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 57.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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