Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | FIU -175 TAR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +17 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -19.9 (-36.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -4.7 (-21.7) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -6.7 (-23.7) | 138.3 (+8.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#168) | -4.1 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#187) | -0.29 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#210) | -0.44 (#220) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.4% | 36.5% |
| TOV% | 31.1% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 18.9% |
| FT Rate | 51.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 51.1% |
Game Analysis
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