Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -100000 LEM +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +26 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -27.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -19.8 (+6.2) | 147.7 (-7.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -24.9 (+1.1) | 147.6 (-7.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#85) | -6.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#109) | -0.29 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#60) | -0.45 (#230) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.71 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.7% | 37.7% |
| TOV% | 10.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 60.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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