Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +110 COFC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +18 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -0.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -0.1 (+17.9) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -0.2 (+18.2) | 141.1 (+20.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#228) | -5.2 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#45) | 0.29 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#135) | 0.25 (#133) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 17.9% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 8.6% |
Game Analysis
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