Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -1400 UIW +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -21.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -15.3 (-1.3) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -18.5 (-4.5) | 136.2 (+19.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#143) | -5.6 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#115) | -0.38 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#90) | -0.60 (#232) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 29.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 17.4% |
| REB / G | 51.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 32.8% |
| TOV% | 26.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 50.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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