Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UK -20000 ETAM +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +20 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UK -30.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -20.8 (-0.8) | 135.1 (+6.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -26.8 (-6.8) | 133.1 (+8.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#25) | -7.2 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#76) | -0.64 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#64) | -0.95 (#268) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 29.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.83 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 33.5% |
| TOV% | 8.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 9.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 84.2% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.9% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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