Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | EMU +126 GASO -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -11.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -2.0 (+8.0) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -3.7 (+6.3) | 141.1 (-11.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#272) | -4.5 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#197) | -0.30 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#239) | -0.46 (#176) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.0% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.9% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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