Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +240 TEM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -15.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.2 (-11.2) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -4.0 (-11.0) | 132.3 (+10.7) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#128) | 1.6 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#218) | 0.38 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#200) | 0.57 (#86) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 18.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 10.7% | 45.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 38.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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