Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -4000 SEMO +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -25.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -18.9 (+16.1) | 147.5 (-0.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -24.2 (+10.8) | 146.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#26) | -1.9 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#58) | -0.38 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#65) | -0.57 (#220) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.1% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 52.4% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 55.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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