Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MINN -800 UTSA +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +26 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -22.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+33.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -13.7 (+12.3) | 146.1 (+31.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -16.5 (+9.5) | 143.6 (+34.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#121) | -5.3 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#86) | 0.33 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#85) | 0.43 (#136) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 47.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 9.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 58.7% | 40.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.7% | 36.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 56.0% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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