Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -2500 LEH +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -28.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -17.9 (-8.9) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -23.9 (-14.9) | 140.5 (-1.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#41) | -7.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#98) | -1.94 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#69) | -2.67 (#287) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 27.6% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 29.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 82.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.1% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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