Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | WMU +162 GAST -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -4.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.5 (-5.5) | 150.3 (-3.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.5 (-6.5) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#260) | 4.4 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#292) | -0.38 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#284) | -0.36 (#163) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 9.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.8% | 10.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 50.9% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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