Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -110 DREX +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -9.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -0.2 (-2.2) | 139.2 (+6.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.8 (-3.8) | 134.3 (+11.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | 3.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#248) | -0.38 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#224) | -0.48 (#182) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.4% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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