Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | RAD +150 MRSH -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.4 (+7.4) | 147.2 (-19.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -2.1 (+6.1) | 146.5 (-18.5) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#156) | 0.3 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#229) | 0.38 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#209) | 0.56 (#92) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.42 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.2% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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