Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -600 ACU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -7.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.7 (+13.3) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -10.2 (+9.8) | 129.5 (+18.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#169) | 6.7 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#88) | 1.94 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#98) | 2.64 (#14) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 6.2% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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