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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–7 on winners spread MAE 9.0 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Fresno State @ Kent State — — — 69–79 —
Stetson @ UNLV — — — 55–71 —
Bucknell @ Niagara +10.1 139.1 81% 73–64 ✗
UAlbany @ Columbia +2.7 144.1 67% 78–75 ✗
Saint Francis @ Santa Clara +13.8 139.2 88% 59–82 ✓
Louisiana @ Toledo +15.6 147.7 87% 78–87 ✓
Siena @ Richmond +12.5 148.2 84% 48–90 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +5.8 138.5 71% 65–89 ✓
Utah State @ Bradley — — — 66–72 —
Omaha @ North Texas +8.4 143.4 77% 64–75 ✓
Illinois State @ Saint Louis — — — 71–80 —
Holy Cross @ Georgetown +13.2 146.7 85% 68–67 ✗
Cal Poly @ Wyoming — — — 66–80 —
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine +11.4 137.4 85% 74–91 ✓
Long Beach State @ DePaul -0.2 146.0 50% 77–73 ✓
San Diego @ UC San Diego +4.9 147.1 65% 63–69 ✓
Bryant @ Rutgers +13.8 129.6 85% 57–66 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Cincinnati +16.5 145.1 88% 73–85 ✓
Maryland @ UAB -2.3 134.4 41% 63–66 ✗
Air Force @ Delaware +14.3 136.7 87% 57–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Iowa State +19.2 135.0 88% 55–86 ✓
Lehigh @ North Carolina +12.1 147.8 84% 68–90 ✓
San José State @ Texas Tech +12.8 134.0 83% 42–56 ✓
Elon @ North Dakota +3.4 155.9 63% 68–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.3 140.4 88% 64–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oklahoma State -0.8 132.8 36% 70–85 ✗
Davidson @ Clemson +1.3 137.6 53% 65–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Boise State — — — 58–63 —
Howard @ James Madison +10.6 162.2 82% 86–107 ✓
Merrimack @ Maine +2.3 132.9 61% 71–65 ✗
Lafayette @ Pepperdine +10.9 141.7 82% 53–76 ✓
Chicago State @ Southern Indiana +7.4 131.6 74% 78–67 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Baylor +10.5 147.9 83% 62–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Georgia +6.8 145.2 76% 54–64 ✓
UC Riverside @ Portland +9.6 140.9 79% 65–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Grand Canyon +19.0 141.4 89% 55–89 ✓
Yale @ Loyola Marymount — — — 83–80 —

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.