Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SCU -8000 SFPA +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -22.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -13.8 (+9.2) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -16.5 (+6.5) | 138.6 (+2.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 3-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#169) | -10.1 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#58) | -0.72 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#54) | -1.08 (#270) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 21.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 21.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 28.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 19.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 58.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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