Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -3300 EIU +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -13.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -5.8 (+18.2) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -6.0 (+18.0) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#260) | -6.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#286) | -0.43 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#292) | -0.69 (#232) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | EIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 29.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 31.9% |
| TOV% | 25.7% | 11.3% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 11.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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