Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | GCU -2000 NAU +1050 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +34 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -22.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -19.0 (+15.0) | 141.4 (+2.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -22.8 (+11.2) | 142.0 (+2.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -21.3 (+12.7) | 143.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | -9.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#138) | -0.39 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#131) | -0.60 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | 0.625 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 36.4% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 44.1% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 62.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 42.1% |
Game Analysis
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