Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -23.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -7000 GWEB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -14.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -10.5 (+4.5) | 147.9 (-8.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -13.5 (+1.5) | 149.8 (-10.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#121) | 0.5 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#41) | -0.39 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#45) | -0.54 (#203) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 34.7% |
| 3PT% | 47.4% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 45.0% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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