Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -800 EWU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -20.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -14.0 (-2.0) | 145.6 (+12.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -16.5 (-4.5) | 145.1 (+12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -22.2 (-10.2) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -19.6 (-7.6) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#92) | -5.0 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#66) | -0.65 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#58) | -0.91 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#35) | 0.500 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 10.9% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 84.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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