Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -24.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +22 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.1 (+9.9) | 147.8 (+10.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -14.2 (+7.8) | 150.9 (+7.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.2 (+8.8) | 153.2 (+4.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#130) | -0.6 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#67) | -1.30 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#56) | -1.66 (#295) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.562 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 23.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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