Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -275 UL +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -20.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -15.6 (-6.6) | 147.7 (+17.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -17.4 (-8.4) | 142.0 (+23.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -15.7 (-6.7) | 145.8 (+19.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#65) | -3.2 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#137) | 0.39 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#123) | 0.51 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | 0.500 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 35.4% |
| 3PT% | 60.0% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 39.2% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.1% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 88.0% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.5% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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