Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UAB +220 MD -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | MD -1.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.3 (+5.3) | 134.4 (-5.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -2.5 (+5.5) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -0.3 (+3.3) | 134.2 (-5.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#237) | -1.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#330) | -0.46 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#320) | -0.47 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | 0.719 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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