Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -1700 HC +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -16.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -13.2 (-14.2) | 146.7 (-11.7) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -16.8 (-17.8) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-12 | 5-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#29) | 3.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#144) | -0.48 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#129) | -0.48 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.8% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 52.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.6% | 61.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 5.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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