Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -25.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -19.2 (+11.8) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -22.7 (+8.3) | 133.3 (+7.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -24.2 (+6.8) | 134.7 (+6.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#3) | 3.5 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#85) | -1.27 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#79) | -1.85 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | 0.000 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.42 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 8.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.4% | 39.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 83.3% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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