Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -1700 SJSU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +14 | 98 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -18.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-35.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -12.8 (+1.2) | 134.0 (-36.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -14.0 (+0.0) | 133.7 (-35.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#75) | -1.3 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#145) | 0.48 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 0.64 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#110) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 45.3% | 38.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.6% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 1.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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