Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -500 BUCK +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -20.0 (-29.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -10.1 (-19.1) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -10.7 (-19.7) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | BUCK 68 – 50 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#192) | -9.0 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#293) | -1.93 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#297) | -2.77 (#327) |
| RPI | — | 0.062 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 26.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 10.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 13.9% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 10.2% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 85.7% | 58.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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