Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -7000 NCCU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -14.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-30.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -6.8 (+3.2) | 145.2 (-27.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -8.9 (+1.1) | 147.7 (-29.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -10.8 (-0.8) | 142.5 (-24.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-5 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#265) | -7.5 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#175) | -0.27 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#183) | -0.35 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.781 (#32) | 0.750 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 81.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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