Betting Lines
| Spread | CMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CMU -163 ULM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | CMU -22.9 (-32.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CMU -7.5 (-17.5) | 137.5 (+0.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CMU -9.2 (-19.2) | 137.3 (+0.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CMU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#246) | -12.6 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#191) | -0.38 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#231) | -0.63 (#250) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CMU | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.9% | 28.2% |
| 3PT% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.1% | 32.1% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 40.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 48.0% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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