Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -30.0 Push |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +30 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -33.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -21.5 (+8.5) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -30.2 (-0.2) | 148.9 (-4.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#7) | -5.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#102) | -0.38 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#55) | -0.60 (#233) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 55.2% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 54.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.93 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 67.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 28.7% | 64.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 53.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.8% | 54.4% |
Game Analysis
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