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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–20 on winners spread MAE 11.7 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Furman @ Mississippi State +10.9 148.7 81% 66–69 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -3.8 133.9 36% 59–79 ✗
South Alabama @ Tarleton State -3.0 129.4 36% 52–65 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA +2.9 152.9 61% 68–50 ✗
San José State @ Portland +1.5 144.6 57% 90–78 ✗
Florida A&M @ Santa Clara +15.1 141.6 87% 66–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Charlotte -11.4 149.1 16% 82–79 ✓
Cal Poly @ Fresno State +13.2 126.8 85% 48–83 ✓
San Diego State @ Saint Mary's +3.0 121.2 62% 63–53 ✗
North Dakota State @ Pacific +3.7 133.5 65% 73–61 ✗
Purdue @ Butler -14.7 137.6 13% 77–48 ✓
St. John's @ Pittsburgh -4.6 143.5 31% 57–59 ✗
Texas Tech @ Gonzaga +3.2 144.6 60% 55–69 ✓
Hartford @ Central Connecticut -0.6 145.7 43% 65–75 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Indiana State +10.7 142.2 86% 43–67 ✓
Saint Francis @ Illinois +14.9 154.1 88% 48–106 ✓
South Florida @ Florida +12.8 124.9 85% 55–66 ✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.1 145.5 88% 53–57 ✓
Radford @ Davidson +16.0 136.0 88% 54–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -9.3 139.0 19% 86–53 ✓
Tennessee State @ South Carolina State +1.0 146.6 50% 88–90 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Colorado +8.3 130.2 79% 46–60 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Wright State +1.8 146.3 54% 63–72 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +0.1 137.8 49% 64–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ High Point +5.2 136.4 69% 71–69 ✗
TCU @ Georgetown +0.3 142.8 46% 80–73 ✗
La Salle @ Bucknell -0.2 149.3 50% 70–82 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Virginia +18.0 130.9 90% 49–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ Miami (OH) +11.3 146.5 86% 77–68 ✗
Utah Tech @ North Dakota -2.7 154.2 37% 78–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Niagara +8.3 122.6 80% 58–66 ✓
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt +11.4 137.5 83% 51–77 ✓
Indiana @ Notre Dame -8.6 139.3 21% 64–56 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +23.1 139.5 91% 54–71 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Bradley +1.2 135.9 55% 73–77 ✓
Louisville @ Western Kentucky +2.8 138.2 57% 72–82 ✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe +12.0 144.6 85% 65–74 ✓
Elon @ Duke +24.6 155.4 91% 56–87 ✓
Georgia Tech @ USC +10.1 139.4 83% 53–67 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +13.1 149.4 87% 71–80 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls +21.1 150.4 91% 73–104 ✓
Wofford @ Presbyterian -0.9 137.4 44% 76–49 ✓
Morgan State @ Mount St. Mary's +4.9 139.0 68% 60–74 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Washington State +12.3 146.0 87% 56–82 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Marshall +5.9 152.6 73% 75–60 ✗
North Texas @ Wichita State +7.8 125.3 76% 62–52 ✗
Ball State @ Illinois State +5.1 158.6 69% 64–85 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Howard +1.2 147.6 56% 57–79 ✓
Utah @ Missouri -6.9 139.0 23% 75–83 ✗
Providence @ UConn +10.6 142.3 83% 57–53 ✗
West Virginia @ UAB +8.5 136.2 76% 65–59 ✗
Marist @ Boston University +7.2 136.4 76% 84–79 ✗
Buffalo @ Canisius -12.4 152.0 14% 64–65 ✗
North Carolina @ Kentucky -0.3 145.0 49% 69–98 ✗
California Baptist @ Arizona +23.2 155.6 91% 60–84 ✓
South Carolina @ Clemson +7.8 143.2 76% 56–70 ✓
Dayton @ Ole Miss +2.1 130.0 57% 68–76 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Stony Brook +8.7 141.4 78% 63–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.