Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +58 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -16.3 (+41.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -18.9 (+39.1) | 153.8 (+0.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -14.9 (+43.1) | 154.1 (-0.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -15.0 (+43.0) | 155.0 (-1.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.8 (+43.2) | 154.6 (-0.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#26) | 0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#54) | -1.13 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#52) | -1.46 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#39) | 0.434 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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