Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | BRAD -170 JOES +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -3.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -3.2 (+0.8) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.2 (+2.8) | 135.9 (+14.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.3 (+2.7) | 136.1 (+13.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.9 (+2.1) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#203) | 0.5 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#306) | 0.25 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#309) | 0.22 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#314) | 0.505 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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