Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -320 PROV +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +4 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -13.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.2 (-15.2) | 137.2 (-27.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -10.6 (-14.6) | 142.3 (-32.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.5 (-13.5) | 141.1 (-31.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.2 (-14.2) | 140.8 (-30.8) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 14-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#13) | 7.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#21) | 3.14 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.11 (#18) | 3.60 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#62) | 0.653 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 42.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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