Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | IU -10.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -7.4 (-0.6) | 135.9 (-15.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -8.6 (+0.6) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -8.5 (+0.5) | 139.6 (-19.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -7.0 (-1.0) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#142) | 11.7 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#180) | 1.45 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#152) | 2.13 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.587 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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