Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +29 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -19.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.0 (-14.0) | 132.9 (-7.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -14.7 (-14.3) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -16.7 (-12.3) | 138.8 (-13.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -16.2 (-12.8) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#183) | 19.0 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#77) | 2.60 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#70) | 4.11 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#164) | 0.618 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 59.7% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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