Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -0.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -4.6 (+4.4) | 144.1 (-9.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -1.8 (+7.2) | 146.3 (-11.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -2.0 (+7.0) | 145.6 (-10.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -1.8 (+7.2) | 145.2 (-10.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-7 | 7-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#301) | -3.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#317) | -2.19 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#308) | -2.49 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#303) | 0.385 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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